Credit Crunch

From Bloomberg:

If you were wondering why Britain's banks' market capitalisations are about 2% of their assets (when the rest of the world is about 10%), a trip to the Office of National Statistics website quickly makes the point. Of the UK's 61m population, 37m are of working age. Of that 37m, only 30m are actually working (there are more people on incapacity benefit than the dole). Of the 30m working, 6m work for the public sector. Of the 24m people working in the private sector, 16m are spread between financial services, construction, hotels & restaurants. That leaves 8m. It makes you wonder why Britain has the highest average property prices in the developed world: £175k vs. the USA and Western Europe at c. £150k. The UK's average house price to average earnings ratio doubled in the last decade to 6x leaving a GDP of £360bn supporting a housing stock of £4tn.

Government debt to GDP is more worrying. It's 40% (50% including PFI/Northern Rock/Railtrack) with an annual deficit that's been running at 3% for the last four years - and they were the boom years. A mild recession could take that to double digits. With the most unpopular government in the history of unpopular governments, chances are we get a desperate policy response going into the Autumn Parliament.

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