What is going on out there?

I think the Sun has the current crisis in context - Howard from the Halifax is going to lose his job. And that's about it. Or is it. Is this a one-week wonder where this time next week the market will have calmed down or are we are at the brink of an economic abyss? The truth is that, in common with everyone else, I have no idea. But here are a few things that we can be sure of...

1. Things will never be the same again - the 1990s model of investment banking and remuneration is over.

2. Government borrowing is about to increase massively. High oil prices have bailed out Labour but no more. The oil price is coming down, the tax take from the City is increasing, the burden on the state is going up. And one thing we do know is that Labour NEVER cut public spending.

3. Gordon Brown will still lose the election but he has regained a pair of balls. Maybe it's spin but his handling of HBOS and Lloyds TSB has been impressive.

4. Economic fundamentals remain impressive. Historically speaking we still have low unemployment, low interest rates and low inflation. For now.

5. This affects all of us - pension funds, house prices, consumer spending, availability of credit etc etc etc. Don't think this is an ill-wind just for the City. Why else would the government being working so hard to save HBOS?

Finally, one further thought. I am a devoted capitalist and loathe any interference from the state but I have been made to think over recent days: it's all very well saying that Goldman's, HBOS, Shell etc are like small countries but when push comes to a hard shove only governments and central banks have the financial muscle and clout to make things happens.

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